25 October 2024

Daily Newsletter

McDonald's Pulls Onions That Likely Caused E.coli Outbreak

The Facts

  • The E.coli outbreak at McDonald's restaurants that has, in the past few days, left one person dead and around 50 ill in the US has been traced to onions sourced from California-based Taylor Farms. The onions were used in the chain's Quarter Pounder hamburgers.

  • McDonald's has reportedly removed the Quarter Pounder hamburger from its menu in many US states, while Taylor Farms recalled several batches of yellow onions produced in Colorado. The Food and Drug Administration is probing the supplier as the possible source of the outbreak.


The Spin

Narrative A

Fast-paced Americans have traded home cooking for a convenience that involves hidden costs. The recent outbreaks of diseases reveal this dark side of that culture. The industrial food preparation process is peppered with risks of contamination. While cooking at high temperatures kills pathogens, we now increasingly rely on food that requires minimal preparation. This is particularly dangerous for the most vulnerable — the very young, elderly, or pregnant.

Narrative B

McDonald's demonstrated strong crisis management and proactive communication skills during the E. coli outbreak by swiftly identifying the likely source. Unlike previous industry crises, the company took immediate action by removing quarter pounders from its restaurants. Over the years, the chain has built a foundation of trust that helps it frame this as an anomaly rather than a systemic issue.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance the first fully automated McDonalds will open in the United States by January, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Polls: Harris and Trump in Tight Race Nationally and in Battlegrounds

The Facts

  • With less than two weeks ahead of Election Day, polling indicates that Democratic nominee Vice Pres. Kamala Harris leads former Pres. Donald Trump by 48.0% to 46.5%, according to FiveThirtyEight, and tied at 48.5% according to RealClearPolitics.

  • Harris' largest margin is in a Big Village poll, where she tops Trump by seven points, 52% to 45%. She is also up in polls from CNBC, The Economist/YouGov, Emerson College, Morning Consult, Reuters/IPSOS, TIPP, and USA Today/Suffolk.


The Spin

Republican narrative

Polls underestimated support for Trump both in 2016 and 2020, so these latest results nationally and in key battleground states are very positive for the Republican ticket. Compared to previous cycles, this is Trump's best chance to win the Electoral College by an even greater margin than 2016 — and even to secure the popular vote.

Democratic narrative

A slight shift in a few polls is not a worry for Kamala Harris. Just a couple of weeks ago she was leading in all but one swing state, and she was even gaining ground on topics like immigration and the economy. Independent voters are going to decide this election, and Trump's personality will only continue to alienate those he needs most.

Nerd narrative

There's a 53% chance that Donald Trump will be elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

UK: Charles III Discusses "Painful Past" at Commonwealth Meeting

The Facts

  • British monarch King Charles III claimed on Friday that "the most painful aspects of our past continue to resonate,” as he called for issues to be discussed "with openness and respect” at a Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Samoa.

  • As African and Caribbean nations reportedly seek reparations for the UK's historic transatlantic slave trade, the British monarch emphasized the need to "understand our history — to guide us to make the right choices in the future." He added: "none of us can change the past."


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Britain's role in slavery stands as a stark ledger of suffering, and the monarchy's deep involvement represents an unprecedented scale of state-sanctioned human trafficking. This demands more than an expression of regret. Modern justice requires formal acknowledgment and compensation for this "appalling atrocity that forever stains our history."

Pro-establishment narrative

King Charles has responded deftly to demands for slavery reparations, emphasizing historical acknowledgment without the divisive step of formal apologies or payments. His approach demonstrates a thoughtful balance. Acknowledging past wrongs need not involve imposing today's values on history or placing a financial burden on the UK. Charles’s diplomacy resonates globally.

Nerd narrative

There is a 14% chance that King Charles III will abdicate the throne of the United Kingdom before September, 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Report: Elon Musk in Regular Contact With Putin Since 2022

The Facts

  • Elon Musk has been in contact with Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin since late 2022, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal published on Thursday.

  • Citing former and current US officials, as well as officials in Europe and Russia, the pair reportedly discussed personal matters, business, and geopolitical issues.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The contact between Musk and Putin raises some serious national security questions given how closely tied Musk's businesses are tied to the US military and intelligence community. However, the US government's arms are somewhat tied because of how heavily they rely on his technologies.

Establishment-critical narrative

Irrespective of how reliant the US is on Musk's technologies, it's unacceptable that he maintains his contracts and security clearances given that he's cozying up to one of America's biggest nemesis. Not only that, Musk should face legal ramifications as well.

Nerd narrative

There's a 16% chance that Elon Musk will become the first trillionaire, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Biden Apologizes for US Role in Indigenous Boarding Schools

The Facts

  • US Pres. Joe Biden Friday apologized for the US government's history of compelling Indigenous — or Native American, Native Alaskan, or Native Hawaiian — children into boarding schools. Biden said it was something "long overdue."

  • Biden made his apology at the Gila River Indian Community, where he commented on the 18K or more children who were taken from their parents for over 150 years beginning in 1819.


The Spin

Left narrative

This apology is a long time coming. Under the guise of "civilizing" Indigenous peoples, the US government removed children from their families and forced them to practice the religion, culture, and language of their colonizers. They were also physically and emotionally punished for not adopting these foreign lessons, thus instilling generational fear and trauma.

Right narrative

Using White or American guilt as a form of penance for some of the tragedies that came with the conquest of US lands does no one any good. In both Canada and the US, laws have been written specifically for the economic benefit of Indigenous peoples. Instead of making modern Americans apologize for the past, society should study and respect this complicated history — and thereafter make informed and effective policy decisions.

See sources

Arizona: Ballots Damaged After Collection Box Blaze

The Facts

  • A mailbox was set on fire Thursday in Phoenix, Arizona, damaging approximately 20 electoral ballots. Dieter B. Klofkorn, 35, was arrested in connection with the incident.

  • The Phoenix Police Department said Klofkorn admitted to committing arson "because he wanted to be arrested," but his actions "were not politically motivated." He's been charged with one count of arson of property.


The Spin

Narrative A

After some worry, it turns out the suspect, by his own admission, was not politically motivated. Klofkorn, who already had an outstanding arrest warrant, simply wanted to be put in jail. Luckily, it also seems that the number of ballots destroyed was lower than the initial number that Phoenix police thought were damaged.

Narrative B

While this incident may not have been election-related, fears of political violence in Arizona remain real. Recently, a man was arrested in connection with three shootings at a DNC office, while a year-old was arrested on terrorism charges after planning to bomb a Pride event. Arizonans are understandably on edge.

Nerd narrative

There's a 58.2% chance that Republicans will win Arizona in the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

UN Report: World on Track for up to +3.1°C of Warming by 2100

The Facts

  • According to a UN Environment Program (UNEP) report released on Thursday, failure to achieve the Paris Agreement's goals will result in global warming of 2.6-3.1 degrees Celsius above baseline by the end of the century.

  • Inger Andersen, the UNEP executive director, warned that without a "massive increase in ambition" in the next round of climate pledges, "1.5 C will be dead within a few years and 2 C will take its place in the intensive care unit."


The Spin

Narrative A

The record-breaking temperatures are a clear sign that urgent action is needed to address climate change. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme heat events demonstrate the immediate impacts of global warming. Without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, these devastating consequences will only worsen for humanity and the planet.

Narrative B

While 2023 was exceptionally hot, it's essential to consider long-term climate trends rather than focusing on individual records. Natural variability plays a role in temperature fluctuations, and more data is needed to fully understand the implications of these recent heat events. The climate system is complex, and caution should be exercised when attributing specific weather events to climate change.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 2.9°C of global warming by 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Uganda: Ex-LRA Commander Gets 40-Year Sentence for War Crimes

The Facts

  • A Ugandan court on Friday sentenced Thomas Kwoyelo, a former commander of the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) rebels, to 40 years in prison for crimes committed between 1996 and 2005.

  • In August, Kwoyelo was found guilty of 44 counts of crimes against humanity in the first such trial in the East African country. He denied all charges.


The Spin

Narrative A

Kwoyelo's conviction represents a significant step towards justice for the victims of the LRA's brutal insurgency. It demonstrates Uganda's commitment to holding war criminals accountable — even those who were once child soldiers themselves. This trial sets a precedent for future cases and sends a strong message that atrocities will not go unpunished.

Narrative B

Kwoyelo's trial raises complex ethical questions about accountability in cases involving former child soldiers. In addition, the long delay in bringing Kwoyelo to trial and the selective prosecution of LRA members while sparing some Ugandan military commanders accused of abuses highlight potential inconsistencies in the pursuit of justice.

Nerd narrative

There's a 30% chance that Uganda will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Israeli Strike Reportedly Kills 3 Journalists in South Lebanon

The Facts

  • An Israeli airstrike killed three journalists in Hasbaya in South Lebanon early on Friday. The area had been considered more safe because Israel had not issued evacuation orders for it. Two of those killed worked for al-Mayadeen, which is generally supportive of Hezbollah, and one for al-Manar, which is affiliated with the group.

  • The bungalow that was targeted had been used by several media outlets to cover the war. Lebanon accused Israel of deliberately targeting the journalists. The Israeli military has yet to comment on the strike.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The US strongly supports free speech and journalistic freedom. Nonetheless, in many cases, outlets like Al Jazeera have framed this complicated conflict in the most anti-Israel terms possible. Likewise, the US truly values Qatar's role in mediating negotiations, but it has made clear that there can be no more business as usual with Hamas.

Pro-Israel narrative

Outlets like Al Jazeera serve as mouthpieces for terror, and Israel will not tolerate such incitement. Israel does not target journalists. However, many of the so-called "journalists" killed in this conflict have actually been Hamas terrorists. Indeed, evidence continues to mount that Al Jazeera is complicit in terrorism.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel's claims are baseless and are being used to silence those covering its genocide in Gaza and its destruction of South Lebanon. The six Al Jazeera journalists Israel has accused of being Hamas and PIJ members all happen to be covering Israel's offensive in northern Gaza. Western media is also culpable in covering for Israel's genocide, taking Israeli claims at face value.

Nerd narrative

There's a 3% chance that the Gaza war will end and significant progress will be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

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