Pro-China narrative

China's space program stands as a beacon of human achievement and scientific progress, which was brilliantly demonstrated by the Shenzhou 19 mission's successful launch. The program emphasizes diversity and innovation, as well as a blend of seasoned and youthful personnel. With eight successful crewed missions to Tiangong and plans for lunar exploration, China's space endeavors inspire a new generation while contributing to our shared understanding of the cosmos.

Anti-China narrative

China's rapidly advancing space program is geared toward achieving military dominance in orbit and on Earth, aiming to disable US and allied space capabilities if desired. Alongside increasing its orbital presence and surveillance capabilities, Beijing is developing counter-space weapons, including anti-satellite tools, that threaten American systems. Strict security around its space operations reflects the broader rivalry with the West, as China pushes to establish its influence in space and beyond.

Nerd narrative

There's a 30% chance that China will land the next person on the moon, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

Even if these unsubstantiated claims were true, the deployment of North Korean troops to aid Russia would conform to international norms. Regardless, there is no concrete evidence of North Korean soldiers fighting in Ukraine. The focus should remain on diplomatic solutions and de-escalation rather than fueling further tensions based on unverified reports.

Pro-establishment narrative

North Korea's deployment of troops in Russia's war against Ukraine signifies a dangerous new level of alliance among authoritarian states. Moscow seeks to bolster its struggling forces while giving Pyongyang valuable combat experience against Western military techniques. This deepening collaboration between Russia and North Korea, as well as with China and Iran, poses an increasingly cohesive threat that extends far beyond Ukraine.

Nerd narrative

There's an 8% chance that Ukraine will withdraw from Kursk before Dec. 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Global warming is the foundation of the rise in hydrometeorological disasters, from hurricanes to tornadoes to floods. What's scariest of all is how heat in and of itself is killing more people than those other events combined, as humans simply cannot bear the rapid temperature jumps every year. Unfortunately, continual record-breaking heat waves have become the norm for this generation, but humanity can still protect the future if carbon emissions are slashed.

Narrative B

While temperatures have steadily risen over the last 50 years, there's been no exponential increase in the rate of warming. Carbon emissions, too, have remained flat or declined over the last decade. The energy industry is already on a carbon-reducing path, from fracking and nuclear energy to solar panels and windmills. This, alongside disaster prevention policies like forest management and urban engineering, is what humanity needs — not destroying industries or economies.

Nerd narrative

There is a 20% chance that the annual average temperature anomaly above the 1899 baseline will be 2.0°C or higher by 2037, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

Labour's socialist budget exposes Reeves and Keir Starmer for their continued misleading of the British public. Having promised a changed party during the general election, Labour has returned to its high-spending, high-borrowing, high-taxation dogma that history has shown to fail time and time again. This anti-business and anti-growth approach will not succeed.

Left narrative

Albeit unpopular for the wealthy who will have to fork the bills, Reeves's budget is a strong and fair approach to finally putting the working people of Britain first. Having left the state of the UK's finances in disrepair after 14 years of self-centered short-termism, the Conservative Party has little right to complain about the painful yet necessary decisions made by the new government.

Nerd narrative

There is a 70% chance that the UK will have a Labour prime minister on Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Though the situation in the region continues to escalate, the US has stood firm in its role as a mediator. Israel has every right to respond to the daily terror attacks it has seen since Oct. 7. However, it is in no one's interest for tensions to explode into a wider regional war. The US will continue to work toward regional stability.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel has largely achieved its military goals in Lebanon and is now working toward a diplomatic solution that closes this bloody conflict. Israel had decimated Hezbollah's leadership and destroyed the border terrorist infrastructure from which it planned to launch an Oct. style attack on northern Israel. Nonetheless, Israel will need to ensure that any deal is rigorously enforced and will not compromise its security.

Pro-Palestine narrative

These "cease-fire" talks are yet another ruse cooked up by the Americans to provide Israel with diplomatic cover to continue its genocide in Gaza and its destruction of Lebanon. Indeed, it is quite clear that Israel's political and military leadership has decided that a drawn-out regional war is in Israel's best interest. Israel will continue targeting innocent civilians across the Middle East, all bankrolled by the US.

Narrative D

Hezbollah and Lebanon have experienced immense suffering for supporting Palestine against Israel's genocidal actions, yet the group will continue its noble fight. Hezbollah is ready and able to defend Lebanon from Israeli aggression and its attacks will end when Israel withdraws from Gaza.

Nerd narrative

There's a 72% chance that the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the person threshold before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

It's very unlikely that this voter purge will change the results of any races in Virginia. However, as the Republican-controlled Supreme Court has allowed this state to ignore federal voting rights law, other states may follow suit and defy the National Registration Voter Act's day ban on purges and create nationwide chaos.

Republican narrative

With this emergency order, the Supreme Court has stepped in to ensure election integrity in Virginia ahead of the Nov. 5 vote — preventing situations where noncitizens are able to cast a valid ballot. On top of that, this legal battle has further shown that Democrats effectively want noncitizens to vote.

Nerd narrative

There's a 55% chance that the 2024 US presidential election will also be considered fraudulent by the losing party, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Harris is positioning herself as the candidate who will unite the nation in opposition to Trump's divisive rhetoric. This speech didn't just address the Democratic Party but reached out to people who may not usually be inclined to vote for Harris but who are looking for an alternative to Trump. Harris did a great job of relating to voters by telling her backstory while also providing her vision for a brighter future.

Republican narrative

Harris isn't fooling anyone by selling herself as the "unity candidate" even as she almost threatens undecided voters to pick her approach only. She may have toned down her rhetoric about Trump in this speech, but her past accusations about him — not to mention Biden's hateful comments about Trump's supporters — make it clear she's not selling joy or a brighter future, just more of the misery of the current administration.

Nerd narrative

There's a 52% chance that Donald Trump will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Australia has no choice but to boost its missile capabilities to counter China and safeguard regional stability. While this strategy should be preventative and de-escalating in nature, the rapid advancement of Beijing's naval and missile systems requires Canberra to enhance its own deterrence and power projection from its northern territories. This should be a group effort between Australia, the US, and other Pacific region militaries.

Establishment-critical narrative

The entire Asia Pacific region must seriously consider the consequences of partnering with the warmongering US. These missile programs — particularly regarding covert nuclear-armed submarines — are not aimed at maintaining peace but rather enriching American weapons companies and provoking China. The US doesn't care if Southeast Asian countries bear the brunt of its cold war with Beijing, which should worry everyone involved.

Nerd narrative

There is a 9% chance of a US-China war before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Kennedy's attempt to help his new ally, Trump, was destined to fail. As a leaked video of one of his campaign workers proved, Kennedy never believed his constitutional rights were being violated; he just wanted to make sure not to siphon votes from the former president. Kennedy's deceit was further proven by his attempt to get on the ballot in New York while trying to be removed elsewhere.

Republican narrative

This is a defeat for election integrity. It doesn't matter if Kennedy is on the ballot in most states; in the battleground states — where the margin of victory could be very narrow — it's dishonest to risk having people who would be inclined to vote for Trump think they could also vote for Kennedy. This could lead to further questions about the legitimacy of the election.

Nerd narrative

There's a 52% chance that Donald Trump will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.