Narrative A

This election is a critical turning point for Sri Lanka. The sweeping mandate, including surprise backing from minority groups, is an unprecedented vote for change and grants Dissanayake greater power to implement anti-poverty and anti-corruption policies. The NPP represents a clean break from corrupt traditional politics and offers real systemic change through anti-corruption measures, economic reforms, and abolishing the executive presidency — essential for Sri Lanka's recovery from its longstanding financial crisis.

Narrative B

Dissanayake is a self-avowed Marxist, while his coalition has few leaders with governance and policy-making experience. The rapid rise of an inexperienced NPP leadership threatens stability and economic recovery, while its Marxist-leaning policies could jeopardize the IMF agreement and international debt restructuring efforts. Sri Lanka's economic situation remains precarious — how the country progresses from this point and carries through the reforms while navigating international commitments will be a real challenge for the new government.

Nerd narrative

There's a 17.4% chance that Sri Lanka will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

An unlikely figure has emerged to play a central role in Trump's coming presidency — Elon Musk. Having broached this meeting with the Iranians and reports that he joined Trump's call with Zelenskyy last week, it's clear that Musk has Trump's ear, at least for the time being.

Establishment-critical narrative

While it's a big deal that Musk spoke to the Iranians, Trump's relationship with Tehran couldn't be much worse. After pulling out of the nuclear deal, the sanctions, and the killing of Qassim Soleimani, now the Iranians are reportedly seeking to assassinate him — if the ODNI is to be believed.

Nerd narrative

There's a 3% chance that Elon Musk will hold major political office in the US before February 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

Allowing RFK Jr. — one of the most persistent and influential vaccine deniers with a history of spreading health misinformation and medical conspiracy theories — to go wild with America's health and food policy will prove catastrophic. As Americans grapple with an enormous number of health challenges, RFK Jr., who is keen on appointing extremists and loyalists rather than experts and technocrats, isn't the best-qualified person to lead the US forward.

Republican narrative

RFK Jr. will do everything to make Americans the healthiest people on Earth again — remove the corrupt officials at the FDA and the CDC, stop the revolving door between Big Pharma and the government, and return federal health agencies to their rich tradition of evidence-based science. He isn't taking vaccines away from anyone, but he will surely fix America's substance abuse crisis, end the chronic disease epidemic, and protect the nation's children.

Nerd narrative

There's a 30% chance that the US federal government will pass legislation by 2040 to provide universal healthcare for American citizens, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Despite all the hyperbole about how bad Trump would be for Ukraine, if he does somehow manage to pull off a peace deal — which he'll not get the credit for — he will have settled a draining, nearly three-year conflict that has no shortages in the amount of soldiers and civilians killed on both sides. It may not be the best deal for Ukraine, but it's the reality it has to accept after being lied to by Democrats with slogans like "as long as it takes."

Democratic narrative

In the election campaign, Trump constantly bragged that he would resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the first day of his presidency. When he assumes power on Jan. 20, while he's packing his prospective cabinet with MAGA loyalists and surrounding himself with radicals who parrot Russian talking points, he'll support a bad deal for Ukraine, one that includes Ukraine ceding its territory and rewarding Putin's aggression.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by January 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

While informative reports like this are vital, the actual death toll from the Sudan conflict could be as high as 125K civilians — due to both violence and hunger. Sudan currently has the most extensive and dangerous humanitarian emergency, surpassing all other emergencies in the world today. Despite these facts, Western media and institutions refuse to give it the coverage it deserves, which is likely why few people know how awful the crisis truly is.

Pro-establishment narrative

The UN meticulously tracks both violence- and health-related deaths in Sudan to assess the conflict's severity and coordinate effective humanitarian responses. While this data helps to inform resource allocation and intervention strategies, the UN requires much more funding to address escalating needs. Millions of people will face dire consequences if the world doesn't step up and give the Sudanese what they need.

Nerd narrative

There is a 36.8% chance the overall population in Sudan will face high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) and decrease to under 20M by February 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

Bailey's comments are in line with both the UK and EU's policy and, more importantly, reality. Despite right-wing denial over Brexit's total failure, the figures speak for themselves and the impact is only getting worse. Brexiteers continue to fantasize over an unlikely US trade deal that would only see the UK bend the knee to an unpredictable Trump. Instead, the UK should look closer to home, shore up the strength of its own continent, and regain respect among its closest allies in Europe.

Right narrative

Instead of focusing on discussing the host of monetary challenges currently facing the UK economy, supposedly neutral BoE Gov. Andrew Bailey somehow decided it was appropriate to broadcast his opinion on a democratic decision. Rather than focusing on repairing its ties with the US and its flourishing economy, Labour and establishment ideologues continue to fawn over a failed European project that they forget the British people have already chosen to reject.

Nerd narrative

There is a 61% chance that the UK will join the European Economic Area before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The US government has been on the right track over the last four years — from Pres. Biden's blacklisting of NSO Group to Congress requiring incident reporting regulations. However, the incoming Trump administration appears to be extremely friendly with Israel, which means these bans and regulations could go out the window come January. Protecting sovereign citizens from the prying eyes of intel agencies and private firms should be a bipartisan effort.

Narrative B

Spyware companies like NSO have led to justified public backlash, but that shouldn't result in an outright ban on these technologies. While Western governments are at the forefront of the fight to restrain malicious spyware schemes, they also need access to these tools to combat adversarial regimes and nonstate actors, especially terrorists. International treaties are already being built to ensure a happy medium, which is the path the world should stick to.

Nerd narrative

There's a 7% chance that a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way will occur before January 1st, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The government's lack of transparency related to UAPs is symbolic of a wider reluctance to be more open with the public on other matters. When the government keeps documents classified leaving citizens in the dark, it fuels speculation and mistrust. It's time for the government to come clean on several subjects.

Narrative B

There are no Pentagon cover-ups related to UAPs. These are baseless fables spread by conspiracy theorists inside and outside of the government. The existence of these phenomena has been diligently studied, but no one has found any evidence that they're anything extraordinary. Mostly, sightings are misidentified advanced technology, secret military projects, or civilian drones.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance mainstream news media will report that alien technology has visited our solar system before Jan. 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Though the situation in the region continues to escalate, the US has stood firm in its role as a mediator. Israel has every right to respond to the daily terror attacks it has seen since Oct. 7. However, it's in no one's interest for tensions to explode into a wider regional war. The US will continue to work toward regional stability.

Pro-Israel narrative

Amid ongoing terror from Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran, the world has turned its back on Israel. Whole stretches of the region have been taken hostage by Iran-backed terror groups while Israel is fighting to liberate the Middle East. Indeed, Israel does not only have a right to defend itself — it has a right to win.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel and the US are using the exact same playbook they've been using throughout this entire war — feigning diplomacy while escalating the conflict. Indeed, Israel has demonstrated that it seeks to expand its genocidal campaign that began in Gaza to Lebanon. Though the US, the most powerful country in the world, has continued its charade that it wants de-escalation, the reality is the US fully supports Israel's crimes across the region.

Nerd narrative

There's a 14% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.