US Election: GOP Extends Senate Majority, Leads House Races

US Election: GOP Extends Senate Majority, Leads House Races
Above: Speaker of the House Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) takes the stage at a Donald Trump campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on Oct. 27, 2024, in New York City. Image copyright: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • As of Friday morning, the Republican Party leads the Democratic Party 53-45 in the Senate with two seats left to be called, and leads 211-199 in the House of Representatives with 25 seats to be called (including Independent candidates).

  • In the Senate, Republicans have so far flipped four seats (West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Montana). There were 34 Senate seats up for election this year, with races in Nevada and Arizona yet to be declared.


The Spin

Republican narrative

The Republican Senate takeover represents a clear mandate for conservative policies and will enable implementation of key priorities including immigration reform, tax cuts, and energy production. This victory positions the GOP to support a Trump presidency, and has provided Democrats with a sharp wakeup call that their ultra woke political agenda means nothing to the average American, who wants to comfortably pay the bills.

Democratic narrative

Democrats faced an exceptionally challenging map engineered by gerrymandering Republicans, and still managed to keep several races competitive despite structural disadvantages. While still fighting for those that need to be defended from a Republican America, such as immigrants and the trans community, it's time for the party to go back to the drawing board and work out a more compelling way to communicate their unity-focused message to the American public.


Metaculus Prediction


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Political split

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RIGHT

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