11 November 2024

Daily Newsletter

Amsterdam Police Detain Dozens for Defying Protest Ban

The Facts

  • Dutch police on Sunday arrested over 300 pro-Palestinian protesters for ignoring a demonstration prohibition put in place following clashes between Maccabi Tel Aviv soccer fans and locals on Thursday.

  • Amsterdam authorities had imposed a three-day ban on all protests on Friday after violent attacks on Israeli soccer supporters across the city left five people hospitalized.


The Spin

Pro-Palestine narrative

The protest ban infringes on legitimate rights to demonstrate against Israeli actions in Gaza, while peaceful pro-Palestinian protesters are being unfairly labeled as antisemitic for expressing political dissent against Israeli policies.

Pro-Israel narrative

The attacks represent a dangerous surge in antisemitism that echoes dark historical periods — threatening Jewish safety in Europe and requiring immediate intervention to prevent further violence against Israeli citizens.

Nerd narrative

There's a 33% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Report: Extreme Weather Cost $2T Globally Over Past Decade

The Facts

  • As diplomats descend on the COP29 climate meeting in Baku, Azerbaijan, the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce has published a study claiming that severe weather has cost the world $2T over the last decade.

  • The consulting firm Oxera evaluated around 4K weather events from 2014-2023 affecting over 1.6B people, pointing to the direct damage inflicted upon homes, businesses, and infrastructure, as well as labor productivity caused by these disasters.


The Spin

Narrative A

Climate change is not a problem for the future, it's a current reality costing the world trillions of dollars. World leaders at COP29 must recognize that financing climate action in the developing world is not an act of generosity — it's a huge step toward making sure all nations are prepared for the worst. Every dollar invested in a more resilient global economy will benefit everyone.

Narrative B

Conferences like COP29 must be contextualized within the UN's rampant climate alarmism. Whether it's sporadically rising temperatures, brimming oceans, or tumbling glaciers, UN climate tropes are frequently debunked with more nuanced analysis. The UN's policies have also had negative impacts on countries' agriculture, which shows the global body only cares about power, not progress.

Nerd narrative

There's a 95% chance that there will be at least 2˚C of global warming by Jan. 1, 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Russia and Ukraine Exchange Largest Drone Attacks of the War

The Facts

  • Russia's defense ministry said it shot down a record 96 Ukrainian drones on Sunday, including 34 over the Moscow region. The report constitutes the largest Ukrainian attack towards the Russian capital since the war started almost three years ago.

  • According to Russian officials, one civilian was killed in the border region of Belgorod, while five civilians were injured in the suburbs of Moscow. Officials added that flights headed for Moscow's two international airports were temporarily diverted.


The Spin

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Every day Russia unleashes more terror on Ukraine, negating any prospect of dialogue or peace talks. These attacks must be met with a strong response from Western partners, primarily by giving Ukraine the weapons it needs to prevent further attacks.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia's defense ministry continues to take decisive action against Ukrainian attacks, shooting down 96 drones deployed in the most recent attack on its nation. Rather than prolonging this conflict, Kyiv should come to the table and agree to peace talks.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine by January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Trump Allies Want Rick Scott to Lead Senate, House Race Still Undecided

The Facts

  • As Republicans are poised to regain control of the US Senate, currently with 53 seats compared to the Democrats' 46, GOP senators will conduct a secret vote Wednesday to choose who will replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) as the Senate GOP leader.

  • Among those vying for the position, which would make them Senate majority leader once the GOP is in power, are John Cornyn (R-Texas), John Thune (R-SD), and Rick Scott (R-Fla.), though Pres.-elect Donald Trump hasn't endorsed anyone yet.


The Spin

Narrative A

The American people voted for the Trump agenda and deserve a Senate leader willing to legislate in that manner. While establishment Republicans like McConnell seek to undermine the administration before it even begins, the majority of Senators have a responsibility to ignore such schemes and vote for an America First leader like Rick Scott.

Narrative B

The Senate leader race should be conducted without the influence of outside actors, including Pres.-elect Trump. There are other qualified candidates besides Scott, all of whom deserve a fair shot at the position. Cornyn, for instance, has helped raise millions to secure this GOP majority and publicly endorsed Trump's cabinet. His America First record is also a winning strategy.

Nerd narrative

There is a 97% chance that Republicans will control the presidency, the Senate, and the House after the 2024 elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

New Zealand: Māori Begin March to Capital Against Treaty Principles Bill

The Facts

  • Some 200 people set off on a nine-day march to the capital of New Zealand on Monday to protest the proposed Treaty Principles Bill, which would narrow the interpretation of the 1840 Treaty of Waitangi between Māori chiefs and the British Crown.

  • The marchers departed from Te Rerenga Wairua/Cape Rēinga in the far north Monday morning (local time), planning to reach Wellington by next Tuesday. Rallies are scheduled to take place in towns and cities including Auckland as the demonstrators move south.


The Spin

Left narrative

These marches are warranted considering this bill is likely to constitute the worst and most comprehensive breach of the Treaty of Waitangi in modern times. If enacted, it would undermine the fundamental rights and protections afforded to the Māori people under the treaty, while significantly weakening the legal avenues through which Māori can have their rights recognized.

Right narrative

Open and respectful dialogue — not marches and rallies — is essential to finding a path forward that preserves the dignity and self-determination of every child growing up in the country. This bill is intended to uphold the fundamental principle of universal human rights enshrined in the treaty — which has long been misinterpreted as creating a "partnership between races."

See sources

Ishiba Re-Elected as Japan's Prime Minister

The Facts

  • Shigeru Ishiba, leader of Japan's main ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Monday was designated for another term as prime minister by a vote in the two houses of the Diet.

  • This comes after a runoff vote in the lower House of Representatives — the first since 1994 — against Yoshihiko Noda of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party, 221 to 160. Earlier, the House of Councillors voted to re-elect Ishiba.


The Spin

Narrative A

While the ruling coalition failed to secure a majority in the lower house in the snap general election last month, it's only natural that Ishiba stays as prime minister given that his political party remains the largest in the country. In fact, while his approval ratings are low, polls show most people believe Ishiba must remain in office.

Narrative B

That Ishiba won the parliamentary vote to stay prime minister doesn't change the fact that Japanese voters have left him and his ruling coalition without a clear mandate to govern the country. Once he's able to pass the budget bills, Ishiba must resign and allow the Liberal Democratic Party to choose another leader.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the LDP will lose its status as the largest party in the House of Representatives of Japan by July 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Trump Names Homan as 'Border Czar'

The Facts

  • US Pres.-elect Donald Trump on Sunday announced on social media that he will select Tom Homan, who served as acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) during the previous Trump administration, as "border czar."

  • Trump further wrote that there's "nobody better at policing and controlling our Borders" than Homan, who he predicted would do a "fantastic, and long awaited for, job," as he'll "be in charge of all Deportation of Illegal Aliens back to their Country of Origin."


The Spin

Republican narrative

The days of Republicans giving in to Democrats' blackmail and race-baiting on the illegal immigration issue are over, as Trump will make good on his campaign promises. With Homan in charge, the US will be safer as illegal immigration will be prioritized as a national security issue. This will also support the economic security of all Americans.

Democratic narrative

Trump knows that by bringing back Homan to have anything to do with immigration policy, he will create a nightmare for both vulnerable residents of the US and Americans who care about humanely caring for others. Naming him "czar" to avoid Senate confirmation is also problematic for separation of powers — this foreshadows that Homan's policies could potentially run afoul of US law.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 944K immigrants to the US will obtain lawful permanent resident status in fiscal year 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Israel: Progress Toward Lebanon Cease-fire, Will Expand Military Operations if Lebanon Says No

The Facts

  • Israel's new Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar said on Monday that there was some progress toward a cease-fire in Lebanon, though he clarified that the war against Hezbollah was not yet over and the main problem was how the cease-fire would be enforced. Hezbollah said no official agreement has been presented so far.

  • Sa'ar added that Russia could play a part in a potential cease-fire by stopping Hezbollah from rearming via Syria. Both Russia and Hezbollah deployed to Syria to assist the Syrian government in fighting rebels throughout the country. Syria acts as a land corridor for Iranian weapons destined for Lebanon.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Though the situation in the region continues to escalate, the US has stood firm in its role as a mediator. Israel has every right to respond to the daily terror attacks it has seen since Oct. 7. However, it is in no one's interest for tensions to explode into a wider regional war. The US will continue to work toward regional stability.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel has been incredibly patient regarding the situation in the north, but, after a year of daily terror attacks on Israeli civilians, Israel has been forced to deal with Hezbollah more aggressively. Israel wants peace, but it cannot allow Hezbollah and other Iran-backed terror groups to threaten its society in such an existential way.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel has escalated the situation in the region every chance it has gotten, with the US supporting it every step of the way. Indeed, Israel has demonstrated that it seeks to expand the genocidal campaign that began in Gaza to Lebanon. Though the US, the most powerful country in the world, has continued its charade that it wants de-escalation, the reality is the US fully supports Israel's crimes across the region.

Narrative D

Though Hezbollah and Lebanon have experienced immense suffering for supporting Palestine against Israel's genocidal actions, the group is capable of fighting for many years to come. It has effectively countered Israel's attempts at advancing into Lebanese territory and will continue to defend Lebanon until a suitable political solution is offered.

Nerd narrative

There's a 4% chance that the Gaza war will end and significant progress will be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Wildfires Burn on Both US Coasts

The Facts

  • Wildfires are raging on the East Coast and West Coast of the US, including 21K acres of land burned from the Mountain Fire in Ventura County, Calif., and 3K acres of land from the Jennings Creek Wildfire in Passaic County, New Jersey.

  • Alongside the Jennings Creek Fire, which is currently 10% contained, fires are also burning in Michigan, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania. There have been over 100 brush fires in New York City this month.


The Spin

Narrative A

This is the fault of climate change. Carbon emissions are leading to hotter and drier climates, leading to larger fires that release more carbon into the atmosphere. Not only are millions of acres of coastal land burning but toxic smoke is being emitted. Americans don't even have to read climate literature to see and smell the effects of climate change.

Narrative B

Climate change's role in wildfires is exaggerated, often at the expense of other crucial factors — including human-caused ignitions and poor forest management. This distortion stems from twisted criteria in academic publishing that favor politicized discourse over truth, leading false narratives about climate impacts to hinder the development of practical solutions.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that wildfires will destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

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